By John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
COVID-19 killed millions of Americans, wrecked the economy, and possibly helped lead to President Donald Trump’s defeat in 2020. As a result, conservatives have been looking for a target to blame, and have chosen Dr. Anthony Fauci, who Trump brought in to coordinate the response. Was Fauci, or the differing responses by governors to the pandemic more likely for the deaths? In this column, I test a hypothesis related to it.
To hear critics write it, you’d think Dr. Fauci was appointed “czar” of the country, that he wielded his policy with an iron fist. In reality, Trump appointed some good experts, took the event seriously at first, and then kind of went off with his own take about what we needed to do, which led to endless eye rolling about radiation and bleach. Later we were told to take a horse dewormer and anti-malaria drugs.
Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci recommended we stick to masks, social distancing and patiently waiting for a vaccine. Most Democrats and some Republicans pushed for staying with the science, while other Republicans either tried to convince us the pandemic was fake or would be over in days, and demanded an early return to the beaches, restaurants, and recommended as many people to catch the disease as possible in somewhat of a parody of “herd immunity.”
In reality, governors played a far more vital role in setting our health policy, as our Constitution and Tenth Amendment dictate. Were COVID-19 deaths more likely to occur in states with a GOP Governor or a Democratic Governor? If Dr. Fauci really was the dictator of health policy, there shouldn’t be a partisan difference.
Using Statista data on COVID-19 deaths by state (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/?srsltid=AfmBOopVPnRPnvTEqbqGDm3C0nOhXkkLw2Jbl255TnLp2AbdeNCDMxTg) I compare those living in a state with a Democratic Party governor at the time COVID-19 broke out. There were 26 GOP Governors, and 24 Democratic Governors, plus DC and Puerto Rico, making it a fairly even split.
The death rates for COVID-19 states with a GOP Governor averaged 346.5385 per 100,000 residents, while for Democratic Governors, that death rate was only 310.3077. That coronavirus death rate certainly lower if you have a Democratic Governor, but the t-ratio’s statistical significance is debatable (<.10, but not <.05).
In earlier publications of mine, I look at how the states voted, because it’s really more up to the voters whether to listen to their state’s governor or not, who had far more power over the response than Dr. Fauci.
“[In 2020 s]tates that voted for Trump had an average death rate of 357.08, versus only 301.8889 deaths for the Biden states,” I wrote. “If you compare Trump states in 2024 to those that voted for Kamala Harris (plus DC and Puerto Rico), the gap is even bigger. Trump states average a COVID-19 death rate of 363.4516 to a COVID-19 death rate of 276.7143 for the places that voted for Harris. And yes, both comparisons are statistically significant in their differences.
That data is reinforced by Bioinformatics CRO, which shows states ranked by age adjusted COVID deaths. Red states make up most of those at the top as well, while most of those at the bottom vote blue.”
Clearly, not everyone followed Fauci’s advice. Those who did seem less likely to perish from the coronavirus, according to this study. And it not only affected how the states responded, but also what happened to those who followed the advice of the politicians.
John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu or on “X” at @johntures2. His first book “Branded” a thriller novel where corporate greed, media manipulation and academic intrigue collide in a deadly game of product placement, has been published by the Huntsville Independent Press (https://www.huntsvilleindependent.com/product-page/branded). His second novel, “Independent Thought,” about a third-party candidacy that brings America to its knees, is coming out later this summer with HIP (https://www.huntsvilleindependent.com/).