by Ross Williams, Georgia Recorder, [This article first appeared in the Georgia Recorder, republished with permission]
September 24, 2026
Georgia House Democrats say 2026 is the year they’re going to take control of the state House, ending more than two decades of Republican rule.
“We are 10 winnable seats away from a majority for the first time since 2004.” said House Minority Leader Carolyn Hugley of Columbus during a press conference Wednesday. “The state House decides what happens to Georgia families on the issues that matter most: property taxes, how schools are funded, whether their votes are protected.”
Republicans say they’re not worried.
“I’m pretty sure they said the same thing in 2024, 2022 and 2020,” said Carmen Bergman, director of the Georgia House Republican Caucus. “We’ve heard this line before. We feel very confident about our ability to not just keep the majority, but grow the majority.”
Democrats picked up 11 seats in 2018, when frustration with the first Trump administration led to higher Democratic turnout and organization. Party leaders say the nation is in a similar mood and that population growth has made Georgia younger and more diverse.
Hugley’s confidence also comes from a new report from Democratic pollster Z to A Research.
Pollsters talked to Georgians in 13 highly competitive legislative districts and found that, after respondents were given a description of each candidate and “heard the case against” the Republican candidate, the Democratic candidate finished ahead in 12 of the 13 races.
Before hearing the information, Democrats only won one of the districts.
Democrats control 81 seats in the 180-member chamber, which means a gain of ten members would put them in the majority, allowing them to elect leaders like speaker and committee chairs and set the agenda for the upcoming legislative session.
The party in charge also leads the usually once-a-decade effort to revise legislative maps, which means many districts are drawn to be safe for either party. That’s why even if statewide Democratic candidates like U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff win more than 50% of the vote in Georgia, Republicans – who drew the current political maps – could continue to dominate the Legislature.
Nonpartisan political observers aren’t convinced that Georgia’s House chamber is in play, though. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, for example, acknowledged Georgia Democrats’ optimism after winning a pair of seats on a state regulatory board last year. But the center still classified both chambers of Georgia’s Legislature as “likely Republican” earlier this year.
The national party may also still need convincing. Will Rusche, vice president of marketing and communications at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which seeks to elect Democrats to state legislatures, said his organization is targeting 500 seats in 27 states, including Georgia, but he declined to say how much the committee is spending in Georgia.
“Right now we’re kind of in the phase in the last few weeks before the election of tracking this polling information, figuring out where resources in the final week are going to be spent, and I think it is a fluid situation,” he said. “We’re going to keep an eye on things.”
Democrats see their best shot at flipping seats in the north Atlanta suburbs
The first step on what Democrats call their path to taking the House includes four Republican districts in northern metro Atlanta won by Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
- Buford Republican state Rep. Sandy Donatucci, who narrowly defeated Democratic state Rep. Farooq Mughal by just 80 votes in 2024 and is now facing a rematch with Mughal.
- Republican state Rep. Matt Reeves of Duluth, who was first elected in 2022 and narrowly won re-election in 2024, defeating Democrat Michelle Kang, who leads a nonprofit, by 621 votes out of more than 29,000. Kang is running for the seat again.
- Sandy Springs Republican state Rep. Deborah Silcox, who won by more than 1,300 votes in 2024, but Harris took 53% of the vote in that election. Democrat Beth Fuller, a former contractor with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is hoping to take her down this year.
- Peachtree Corners Republican state Rep. Scott Hilton, who outperformed President Donald Trump in 2024, taking nearly 55% of the vote in a district where Harris won 50.6%. He’s facing Democrat Adam Cleveland, an attorney.
Longer shot opportunities
The other six seats Democrats say will bring them to the majority are likely to be significantly tougher. Each of the Republican incumbents won by around 15% in 2024, but Democrats say their new polling predicts they are flippable.
- District 44 in Cobb County where Republican state Rep. Don Parsons of Marietta faces Democrat Danielle Bell, a healthcare advocate.
- District 34 in Cobb County where Republican state Rep. Devan Seabaugh of Marietta faces Democrat Titus Nichols, an attorney and Army Reserve officer.
- District 19 in Cobb and Paulding counties where state Rep. Joseph Gullett of Dallas faces Democrat and educator Cynthia Starke-Jones.
- District 147 in Houston and Peach counties where Republican state Rep. Bethany Ballard of Warner Robbins faces Democrat Renita Duncan, a retired U.S. Army command sergeant major and federal worker.
- District 81 in Henry County where Republican state Rep. Noelle Kahaian of Locust Grove faces Democrat Mishael White, a commercial truck driver.
- District 45 in Cobb County where Republican state Rep. Sharon Cooper of Marietta faces Democrat Michelle Schreiner, a psychologist.
Lauren Groh-Wargo, CEO of left-leaning voting rights organization Fair Fight Action, said Democrats have some wiggle room if some of these races don’t go their way. She said at least 10 other districts appeared promising in Democratic polls or saw a strong performance by Harris in 2024.
“These six, were we to win them, would bring us a majority, but we have room to miss,” she said. “We have additional seats that are competitive.”
Republicans planning their own flips
Bergman with the House Republican caucus said the Georgia GOP will not rest on its laurels this November.
Even if voters are frustrated with Republicans at the federal level, Georgians largely report satisfaction with the party at the state level, she said.
“Voters are smarter than I think some politicos give them credit for,” she said. “They can separate out different levels of government, different levels of responsibility and will take action in the voting booth to support the good common sense governance they’re seeing at the state level.”
Bergman said several Democratic seats are ripe to be flipped, starting with Democratic state Rep. Eric Gisler of Watkinsville, who won his seat in a special election last year in a conservative district after the previous representative stepped down. Gisler defeated Republican Mack “Dutch” Guest, who works for his family trucking business, by around 200 votes.
Republicans blamed the loss on an off-year election during a time when Democrats were more motivated to vote, and Guest is set to face off against Gisler once more this year. Democrats’ new polling shows the race tied.
Bergman said Republicans are eying other Democrat-held seats including:
- District 128, represented by Democratic state Rep. Mack Jackson of Sandersville, who is not running for re-election. Jackson won by just 48 votes in 2024. Democrat Tyrone Evans, a certified public accountant, will face Republican Trey Sheppard, co-owner of a family-owned shipping business.
- District 145 in Bibb and Houston counties, where Democratic state Rep. Tangie Herring won by just 273 votes in 2024. Former Forsyth Mayor Eric Wilson, a Republican, is challenging Herring.
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