by Jay Bookman, Georgia Recorder, [This article first appeared in the Georgia Recorder, republished with permission]
October 28, 2026
If you believe the polls, Jon Ossoff will easily win re-election to the U.S. Senate, and Keisha Lance Bottoms is right on the heels of Rick Jackson in the governor’s race despite being badly outspent. She might even have a slight lead.
Once upon a time in a not-too-distant past, this whole thing would have been unthinkable. For some, it still is. But Georgia has changed, the times have changed and under Donald Trump, the Republican Party has changed.
After Tuesday, even more change is likely.
First, though, a note of caution: Polls can be wrong. Never put your faith in polls.
But can polls be wrong everywhere, all at once? I ask because national polls and polls in other states are producing results much like those predicted here in Georgia. They project significant Democratic gains even in deep red states such as Texas and Kansas. Overall, polls suggest a fairly consistent 8 to 10-point swing toward Democrats, which would be larger than in most midterms. If that proves to be the case come election night, a lot of unemployed Republican politicians will be lined up outside Fox News trying to get contributor contracts.
But back to the question: Yes, theoretically all the polls can be wrong, everywhere and all at once, if pollsters are all making the same mistakes.
So let’s examine the 2026 electorate from another perspective. Early voting totals here in Georgia show big turnout from Democratic counties, and slow turnout in Republican areas. While that data would seem to offer real-life validation of what the polls are finding, caution again reminds us that we won’t know for sure what those ballots contain until they’re opened and counted. Voters can be tricky.
However, we also know roughly who those voters are. Black and minority Georgians are turning out at a higher pace than white Georgians, who tend to vote Republican. Urban voters and independent suburban voters are voting in larger numbers than rural voters. In other words, polls, early voting numbers and voter demographics are all pointing us in the same general direction.
And if that turns out to be true, if Ossoff sails to reelection and Bottoms gets elected as governor, it’s hard to imagine the impact on Georgia politics in general and specifically on the Georgia Republican Party. Everything would have to change.
It has been an article of faith that Georgia is and always will be a conservative state. Even when the state was dominated by Democrats, they were culturally conservative, pro-business Democrats who had no problem whatsoever adopting the Republican identity when the time proved right. Even when Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won statewide races for the Senate, it was possible to dismiss those results as accidents of bad timing and bad candidates.
If the pollsters prove to be right, that’s no longer the case, and the power structure in the state will be shaken to its core.
The catalyst for that change, the catalyst for most of the political chaos of the last decade, is of course Donald Trump. In his second term as president, Republicans abandoned whatever restraints they once put on their president and have let Trump be Trump. Voters everywhere seem determined to make them pay for that failure.
If Tuesday delivers a broad rejection of Trump’s leadership, how do Georgia Republicans respond? For years they’ve been fed this delusion that Georgia hasn’t changed, that America hasn’t changed, that the only reason they’re losing elections is because they’re being cheated of their birthright to rule. That mindset, if it persists, will not allow them to make the necessary adjustments to compete in this emerging Georgia.
They have a ready role model in Brian Kemp, the popular governor who leaves office with a nearly 70% job approval rating. However, part of Kemp’s appeal beyond the MAGA base is his refusal to embrace and act upon that “election integrity” delusion. For many MAGA Georgians, that is a disqualification.
Republicans would also have a lesson to the contrary in Mike Collins, the MAGA-approved Senate candidate who bet his future that a base-only strategy could still win a general election in this state. As Georgia voters are about to confirm, you cannot.
Georgia Recorder is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Georgia Recorder maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Jill Nolin for questions: info@georgiarecorder.com.