Photo above: John Tures with Mike Collins
By John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
An hour southwest of Atlanta, Georgia, Congressman Michael Collins was desperately fighting for his chance to move up a spot and take U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff’s seat, answering questions from me. It’s rural areas like this that give him any shot. Yet as the data show, thanks to Trump’s unpopularity, it might not be enough.
“We’re trying to focus on Ossoff’s voting record,” Collins told me at a campaign stop at the Troup County Chamber of Commerce. “At the debate, he wouldn’t defend his own votes. He ran away from his own record. We just wanted to know something of his thought process as to why he took those votes. But he wouldn’t tell us.”
Collins also told me of his support for enabling money that normally goes to students for college should go to trade schools or other professional programs. Then he took a trip down to the popular local eatery, Charlie Joseph’s, a smart move for any politician of either party. It’s where I interviewed Stacey Abrams when she came campaigning through LaGrange.
Both lines are likely to play well with rural voters around LaGrange, Georgia. But will it be enough for Collins in November? Polling data shows that the Congressman, from a rural district, is losing Trump voters thanks more in part to the President’s unpopularity compared to just two years ago.
Quantus Insights has some answers. Though rural voters back Collins by a nearly 2:1 margin, it is a different story elsewhere.
“The lead is built on a familiar coalition. Women back Ossoff 56 to 40 while men favor Collins 51 to 47. Voters under 30 go Ossoff by 41 points; voters 65 and older go Collins by nine. The Atlanta media market, which casts about 70 percent of the state’s vote, breaks 56 to 40 for Ossoff, well to the left of Kamala Harris’s 5-point win there in 2024…. The most important number may be independents, who make up a quarter of the sample and back Ossoff 56 to 35. That is the kind of split that separates a competitive race from a comfortable one.”
And Ossoff is campaigning with several national Democrats in Newnan, halfway between Atlanta and LaGrange, trying to win votes in the suburbs and rural areas.
And it’s a set of polls that show businessman Rick Jackson with a slight lead over Keisha Lance Bottoms, with Atlanta trending more for the former mayor in the direction of Harris’ lead than Ossoff’s.
But Trump has shown himself to be a drag on the Republican ticket for the U.S Senate race. Rather than dodge the winner of the state in 2024, Senator Ossoff chose to go right after the President and use ads to tie Collins to Trump. Touting his connection to Trump may have helped Collins in the primary against Derek Dooley and US Congressman Buddy Carter, but those have now become liabilities as the ads of the rallies about joining the Trump Train and shoveling coal may haunt Collins.
“Senator Ossoff has made a concerted effort to court men who support President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, citing his alleged mishandling of the Epstein Files and prioritizing foreign policy over affordability,” Director BIG DATA POLL Rich Baris noted in a statement. “That strategy, which we focus tested back in February, was effective and appears to have worked.’ Only 2.9% of voters who supported Vice President Harris in 2024 are voting for Rep. Collins, but 14.3% of voters who backed President Trump in 2024 indicate they will vote for Senator Ossoff. That significant level of defections is not present in the gubernatorial contest.”
Trump has made a point of pushing for Collins, frequently commenting on how much he likes the way Collins looks. I was contacted for a call-in rally that lasted 20 minutes, Trump spoke for 15 minutes, often about himself and people he disliked. Jackson got two minutes. Collins pushed it close to three before the host shifted toward a poll question. Though I clearly said I would vote early in the poll, the respondent coded me as “undecided.”
Trump is hoping to help Collins with a rally in Dalton, and another in Perry, Georgia, both in rural parts of the Peach State. But it may be proximity to an unpopular incumbent that sinks Collins unless something changes in the final weeks of the campaign.
John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu or on “X” at @johntures2. His first book “Branded” a thriller novel where corporate greed, media manipulation and academic intrigue collide in a deadly game of product placement, has been published by the Huntsville Independent Press (https://www.huntsvilleindependent.com/product-page/branded). His second novel, “Independent Thought,” about a third-party candidacy that brings America to its knees, is published by HIP (https://www.huntsvilleindependent.com/product-page/independent-thought).