By John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College

You’ve probably heard of a bellwether, like a bellwether state for elections. It used to be Ohio. Now it’s Georgia. Or perhaps it’s a turning point in a sports season or a moment in a movement. It comes from sheep, where the “wether” (the dominant male sheep) leads others, and often wears a bell. Yeah, sheep are often seen as dumb, and I’ve seen evidence among them for that. But someone’s leading them, and others do follow.

Economists are always searching for bellwethers in earnings reports, job reports, and a key forecast by a smart person or administration official. Political scientists are always looking for bellwethers in elections, polls, and other trends that show where the voters are.

With the release of the documentary “Melania,” conservative pundits think that its phenomenal success bodes well for the GOP in general and Republican candidates in 2026.

“During Monday’s episode of Outnumbered on Fox News, panelist Paul Mauro claimed that the $75 million documentary of the first lady, which made less than 10 percent of its total budget in its opening weekend, signals that the midterm elections are not a done deal for the Democrats,” writes Vic Verbalaitis for the Daily Beast, in an article reposted on Yahoo News. “What Democrats are “really worried about is if this is indicia for the midterms,” Mauro, a former NYPD inspector, said. “They’re all saying, ‘Oh, it’s done, we’re gonna control Congress.’ This is the indication that the silent majority is still out there.” The critically panned Melania documentary performed better than expected in red areas of the country, but brought in $7 million in its opening weekend. Amazon shelled out $40 million for the rights to Melania Trump’s story, and spent an additional $35 million marketing it.”

In that Daily Beast piece, Fox Host Kayleigh McEnany added “Not only was the theater packed,” McEnany, 37, said, “it was standing room only, if you could try to sneak into the back of the theater.” “People were cheering through it, they were excited,” she continued. “It was interactive—people interplaying with the film. She said it was just electric.” “Melania should be nominated for—I guess it’s an Oscar, right? That’s for movies?” she added. “And if she was to go, she would be the best dressed and the classiest dressed by a long shot.”

Documentary defenders of “Melania” were quick to dismiss the critics’ rating of 10% on Rotten Tomatoes, showing that the audience score topped 99% in reviews.

At that same time, in a special election for a state seat in Louisiana’s legislature, “Louisiana Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez defeated her Republican opponent by double digits in the special election Saturday night for a state House seat in a district President Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Martinez won 62% of the vote compared to 38% for her Republican opponent, Brad Daigle, according to unofficial results from the Louisiana Secretary of State,” reported CBS News. That’s a 37 percentage point swing from 2024.

That’s on the heels of a Texas legislative special election, according to CNN. “The win Saturday by Democrat Taylor Rehmet in the Fort Worth-area district is the latest in a string of special election triumphs by the party since the start of Trump’s second term. Rehmet, a union president and veteran, defeated Trump-endorsed candidate Leigh Wambsganss by 14 points – representing a roughly 31-point swing from Trump’s 2024 margin.”

My research shows that the strong performance for the Democratic Party in 2025, in more than just blue states but in purple ones and red ones like Texas and Louisiana in 2026, may be the true bellwether for the Fall of 2026. Georgia Democrats like Charlie Bailey are counting on that. But then again, a 99% audience rating for “Melania” might be hard to overcome, even if second week sales for the documentary plummeted 67 percent.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu or on “X” at @johntures2. His first book “Branded” a thriller novel, has been published by the Huntsville Independent Press (https://www.huntsvilleindependent.com/product-page/branded).