Calmer hurricane season expected in Atlantic as worries over federal response persist

by Sam Gauntt, Georgia Recorder, [This article first appeared in the Georgia Recorder, republished with permission]

June 16, 2026

WASHINGTON — The Atlantic Ocean is predicted to have a tamer-than-usual hurricane season this year, but experts say it’s necessary to remain vigilant as it can take only one serious storm to cause significant damage.

But with many of the nation’s climate and weather-focused and emergency response agencies facing proposed funding cuts, some policy analysts are warning that states’ ability to respond to serious weather events could be weakened.  

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts there will likely be between eight and 14 named storms, with between three and six of those becoming hurricanes, this season. 

NOAA estimates there will be between one and three serious hurricanes — those ranging from Category 3 to Category 5, which brings winds higher than 157 mph. An average hurricane season has about 14 named storms and three serious hurricanes. 

This season’s relatively lesser predicted intensity comes mainly from the current El Nino, according to Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead for seasonal hurricane outlook. 

“August, September, October is really the peak of the hurricane season, that accounts for 90% of all your tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic,” he said. “And we’re expecting even that to be quiet, too.” 

While NOAA will update its forecast for the remainder of the season in August, Rosencrans said the difference between the early and later summer forecasts is not typically large, but often a change of just one or two predicted storms. 

Being prepared

Even though the upcoming hurricane season isn’t likely to be as intense as in years past, some storm-prone states may be more unprepared to respond to them, some experts warn. 

The Trump administration’s funding cuts, layoffs and reorganization efforts to the nation’s weather and climate-related agencies have put these communities at risk, according to a recent report from the liberal-leaning Center for American Progress. 

“The Trump administration has just made it its mission to stretch out our federal agencies way too thin,” Lucero Marquez, the center’s associate director for federal climate policy, said. 

Marquez said that many states don’t have the infrastructure to handle severe weather events entirely on their own without federal assistance. If local governments are forced to shoulder more of the burden, she said, it could affect their ability to respond to crises. 

 

If agencies like the Federal Emergency Management Agency were to withdraw support, she said, state and local communities would not be equipped. 

Top U.S. House Democrats on the Homeland Security Committee say more than 5,000 FEMA employees have left since January 2025 and a recent report by a review panel recommended more cutbacks. 

According to data from the Disaster Dollar Database, a tool launched by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that tracks federal funding for disaster recovery efforts, residents and households in Florida, Texas and Louisiana alone have received more than $10 billion in relief payments since 2015.

FEMA says it’s ready

But representatives for the federal government’s weather and emergency response agencies said they’re fully prepared for the season. 

In a statement to States Newsroom, a FEMA spokesperson said the agency is “ensuring workforce stability and a strong, deployable force for upcoming national events and potential disasters; making the agency leaner, faster and laser-focused on supporting state, local, tribal and territorial partners before, during and after disasters.”

“FEMA continues to maintain a roster of experienced leadership and support staff across headquarters and regional offices, including through acting and career personnel serving in key roles to ensure continuity of operations and mission readiness,” the statement read. 

A representative for the National Weather Service echoed this sentiment. 

“We have been and continue to be fully staffed for around-the-clock operations to meet the rigorous demands of severe weather season, hurricane season, and all other weather hazards,” Erica Cei, a spokesperson for the National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center, said in a statement to States Newsroom. 

Best safety practices

A lighter season doesn’t mean there still can’t be a dangerous or damaging storm. 

Rosencrans, the NOAA meteorologist, said that the forecasts predicted the overall amount of storm activity, not necessarily the strength of an individual storm. 

“Definitely the potential for any one of the storms that does form to go all the way to Cat 5, if it hits the right area of low wind shear and the right area of warm sea surface temperatures,” he said. “In bulk, we’re not expecting to see as many of them this year, because you just don’t have as much energy in the Atlantic.” 

To stay safe during significant weather events, Rosencrans recommended preparing ahead of time and stocking up on food, water and gas. 

He also advised residents to gather all necessary paperwork, such as proof of residency documentation, in addition to reviewing insurance policies for flooding or storm damage. 

Rosencrans also stressed the importance of monitoring current storm conditions. He advised checking the weather.gov and hurricanes.gov trackers frequently, as well as staying up to date with your local county, parish or state emergency managers for community-specific information and updates. 

Georgia Recorder is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Georgia Recorder maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Jill Nolin for questions: info@georgiarecorder.com.