By John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College

One of the most frequent questions I get is what might happen in the mid-term election and next presidential elections. Though most reports look at President Trump’s approval ratings nationwide, any student of civics knows that such contests are decided in the Electoral College, by the states. Therefore, I look at Civiqs polls to see where Trump stands, and how those approval ratings affect the 2026 and 2028 elections.

As noted earlier, Trump’s approval ratings, taken as the average from several polls in RealClearPolling.com, is 44.2 percent. His disapproval ratings average out to 52.5 percent. Of course, there’s a wide variation, with some being 10-15 points underwater, and he’s tied in others.

But that’s not how elections are decided, are they? A state-by-state measure would be more predictive of what might happen in two years, or the next four. So I consulted Civiqs’ polling map, which does exactly that. You can find their data here: Map shows Donald Trump’s approval rating in each state after nine months.

I automatically assume that polls are five percentage points off, so I add that many points to every state’s approval and disapproval rating. Call it the “shy Trump voter syndrome” where some members of the public wouldn’t wave a flag or wear a red hat, but would secretly vote for the President.

As Martha McHardy of Newsweek writes of these poll results, “Swing states, which were decisive in the 2024 election, show a more nuanced picture. In Pennsylvania, where he narrowly won 51 percent of the vote, approval now stands at 43 percent with 52 percent disapproval, resulting in a net of −9. Michigan and Wisconsin show similar trends, with approval around 41–43 percent, disapproval 54 percent, and net approval at −11 to −13.”

Using the 270towin.com map and adding five percentage points to Trump in each state, the numbers show him losing 326 Electoral College votes to 212.

Poll variations show 226 strong disapproval, 52 likely disapproval (more than ten points disapproval > approval) and 41 lean disapproval (between six and 10 points disapproval). For Trump, 71 Electoral College votes are in strong approval territory, while 24 are in likely Trump, 30 are “lean Trump,” and 87 E.C. votes (Texas, Florida and Ohio) all have higher disapproval than approval ratings for Trump, but are within five percentage points of each other, so I gave them to Trump instead of the Democrats.

The news isn’t all bad for Republicans. But there are some positives for Republicans. According to RealClearPolling.com Republican Party favorability is at 41.5 percent to 53.5 percent unfavorable ratings, but that’s better than the Democrats, who find themselves 34.7 percent favorable. Yet Democrats show that even with this disparity, Democrats still have a narrow lead in the generic Congressional ballot (45.9%-43.3%).

McHardy quotes University College London Professor Thomas Gift, who states “The fact that Trump’s approval is underwater in every swing state underscores how divisive his presidency continues to be — he’s consolidating his base but struggling to broaden it. Trump not being on the top of the ticket in 2026 also spells challenges for Republicans, as in the past they’ve underperformed in many state races when Trump wasn’t in the running,”

It’s still months before the midterms, and years before the next presidential contest, so that’s also good news for the GOP. And there’s no comparable opponent for the next GOP nominee to face. But right now, Democrats have reason to feel somewhat optimistic heading into 2026, and 2028.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu or on “X” at @johntures2. His first book “Branded” will be coming out this Fall, published by Huntsville Independent Press (https://www.huntsvilleindependent.com/).