Cobb County Sheriff’s race between Owens and Warren: a look at the precincts

Map showing areas of support for Craig Owens or Neil WarrenMap showing areas of support for Craig Owens or Neil Warren (screenshot from Cobb's election results site)

At first glance the color-coded results map for the race between incumbent Republican Sheriff Neil Warren, and Sheriff-elect Craig Owens doesn’t look much different from other countywide races, where Democrats dominated.

But the margin of victory for Owens, a major in the Cobb County Police Department and the commander of Precinct 2, was wider than for any countywide office.

Owens received 213,143 votes (or 55.24 percent of the total) to 172,706 votes for Warren (44.76 percent of the total).

Let’s take a look at a screenshot of the map showing the countywide distribution of Owens-majority precincts (coded in green) versus Warren-majority precincts (coded in dark blue).

You can view the interactive version of the map above by following this link.

As you can see it looks similar to the map of the chairmanship race for the Cobb County Board of Commissioners.

Support for Owens ranged from Smyrna and Marietta southward, (with the exception of the Vinings 04 precinct to the lower right of the map), plus a corridor running up Cobb Parkway through Kennesaw and Acworth.

Support for Warren was concentrated in East Cobb and northwest Cobb, with a scattering of precincts in the Big Shanty/Bells Ferry area, and of course Vining 04, the one exception to Democratic dominance in the southern portion of the county.

A notable thing about the opposition to Warren is the margins by which he lost the precincts in which he was unpopular.

In addition to the general Democratic nature of the county at this point, the deaths in the Cobb County Adult Detention Center and Warren’s involvement in culture war issues like his criticisms of the KSU cheerleaders who took the knee in protest of the death of Black people at the hands of police, took its toll on his numbers in Democratic-leaning precincts, particularly precincts with large Black majorities.

There are several ways of comparing two numbers and coming up with a percentage to indicate the difference, but the simplest and most intuitive one to use in elections is margin of victory, where you subtract the percentage of the total number of votes one candidate won from the percentage of votes the other candidate won. Programming it looks like this:

|(Candidate A votes / Total votes) * 100) – (Candidate B Votes / Total Votes) * 100))|

Put more simply, if Candidate A got 49 percent of the vote, and candidate B got 51 percent, the margin of victory would be 2 percent.

There were 16 precincts where the margin of victory was greater than 50 percent, and all of them were won by Owens.

Two South Cobb precincts gave Owens a whopping 87 percent (Bryant 01) and 84 percent (Bryant 02) margin of victory.

The closest Warren came to winning a precinct with a 50 percent margin was Mars Hill 01 in the northwest corner of the county, where he won with a 47 percent margin of victory. But most other Warren wins were much narrower.

So in precincts where Warren was unpopular, he was intensely unpopular.

Here are the precinct-by-precinct breakdowns. You can view a map of any of the precincts by clicking on the link on the name.

PrecinctOwensWarrenWinner in PrecinctMargin of Victory in each precinct
Acworth 1A19961923Owens1.86
Acworth 1B16491935Warren7.98
Acworth 1C22041203Owens29.38
Addison 01960961Warren0.05
Austell 1A2654606Owens62.82
Bells Ferry 0210711172Warren4.50
Bells Ferry 03839809Owens1.82
Bells Ferry 0411781474Warren11.16
Big Shanty 01734847Warren7.15
Big Shanty 0211471291Warren5.91
Baker 0119541342Owens18.57
Birney 011133647Owens27.30
Birney 021904974Owens32.31
Bryant 01137395Owens87.06
Bryant 022818229Owens84.97
Blackwell 011070950Owens5.94
Chattahoochee 0127951035Owens45.95
Cheatham Hill 029981475Warren19.29
Cheatham Hill 0315921668Warren2.33
Chalker 0124171381Owens27.28
Clarkdale 01764474Owens23.42
Clarkdale 0225901002Owens44.21
Cooper 012618651Owens60.17
Chestnut Ridge 0110561580Warren19.88
Dickerson 0110351295Warren11.16
Dobbins 011035353Owens49.14
Dobbins 021744654Owens45.45
Dowell 0113281149Owens7.23
Dodgen 017291000Warren15.67
Durham 0110902361Warren36.83
Davis 01775897Warren7.30
Eastside 0110501451Warren16.03
Eastside 0214311875Warren13.43
Elizabeth 011690744Owens38.87
Elizabeth 028251029Warren11.00
Elizabeth 039701249Warren12.57
Elizabeth 041257761Owens24.58
Elizabeth 0510561185Warren5.76
East Piedmont 011058791Owens14.44
Fair Oaks 022549923Owens46.83
Fair Oaks 041825827Owens37.63
Fullers Park 0112731509Warren8.48
Ford 018011723Warren36.53
Frey 016921312Warren30.94
Garrison Mill 0110181285Warren11.59
Gritters 0113381613Warren9.32
Harmony-Leland 013779706Owens68.52
Harrison 018031688Warren35.53
Hightower 0114652016Warren15.83
Hayes 0111422065Warren28.78
Kennesaw 1A884749Owens8.27
Kennesaw 2A13461342Owens0.15
Kennesaw 3A26311601Owens24.34
Kennesaw 4A13671287Owens3.01
Kennesaw 5A23842009Owens8.54
Kell 01660885Warren14.56
Kemp 015251049Warren33.29
Kemp 0213921788Warren12.45
Kemp 039772223Warren38.94
Lassiter 0112091750Warren18.28
Lindley 012871837Owens54.85
Lost Mountain 0112411724Warren16.29
Lost Mountain 0211562348Warren34.02
Lost Mountain 0316572668Warren23.38
Lost Mountain 047711329Warren26.57
Mableton 0125051010Owens42.53
Mableton 021405520Owens45.97
Mableton 031233901Owens15.56
Mableton 04678583Owens7.53
Mabry 01477893Warren30.36
Macland 012177750Owens48.75
Murdock 0114581846Warren11.74
McEachern 0116111038Owens21.63
McCleskey 01598825Warren15.95
McClure 019501632Warren26.41
Marietta 1A1619722Owens38.32
Marietta 2A722998Warren16.05
Marietta 2B18721201Owens21.84
Marietta 3A17031491Owens6.64
Marietta 3B1123225Owens66.62
Marietta 4A5511114Warren33.81
Marietta 4B778742Owens2.37
Marietta 4C8981355Warren20.28
Marietta 5A1444614Owens40.33
Marietta 5B1232395Owens51.44
Marietta 6A1166380Owens50.84
Marietta 6B12171041Owens7.79
Marietta 7A1446366Owens59.60
Mars Hill 017152007Warren47.47
Mars Hill 029401140Warren9.62
Mt Bethel 0114081967Warren16.56
Mt Bethel 0311511448Warren11.43
Mt Bethel 049761421Warren18.56
North Cobb 01872790Owens4.93
Nickajack 012614848Owens51.01
Norton Park 0119131215Owens22.31
Nicholson 018151001Warren10.24
Oakdale 0117751251Owens17.32
Oregon 01542795Warren18.92
Oregon 022817980Owens48.38
Oregon 032269846Owens45.68
Oregon 042297899Owens43.74
Oregon 0518021243Owens18.36
Pebblebrook 012686585Owens64.23
Powers Ferry 0112501245Owens0.20
Pine Mountain 019791839Warren30.52
Pine Mountain 027711830Warren40.72
Post Oak 0111411779Warren21.85
Pope 0111021417Warren12.50
Palmer 018751128Warren12.63
Powders Springs 1A2580994Owens44.38
Powders Springs 2A1814445Owens60.60
Powders Springs 3A1985709Owens47.36
Pitner 019291159Warren11.02
Rocky Mount 0111421497Warren13.45
Riverside 011000107Owens80.67
Roswell 0118882603Warren15.92
Roswell 0213511691Warren11.18
Sandy Plains 0111281180Warren2.25
Shallowford Falls 0111771609Warren15.51
Simpson 01661805Warren9.82
Sewell Mill 0113361438Warren3.68
Sewell Mill 0317691318Owens14.61
Smyrna 1A1883579Owens52.97
Smyrna 2A2725911Owens49.89
Smyrna 3A20881058Owens32.74
Smyrna 3B1107804Owens15.86
Smyrna 4A25982066Owens11.41
Smyrna 5A1927893Owens36.67
Smyrna 6A26181912Owens15.58
Smyrna 7A35961540Owens40.03
Sope Creek 017481064Warren17.44
Sope Creek 0217461845Warren2.76
Sope Creek 039591294Warren14.87
Sweetwater 011436856Owens25.31
Sweetwater 021508435Owens55.22
Terrell Mill 0123931100Owens37.02
Timber Ridge 018701146Warren13.69
Vaughan 018471679Warren32.94
Vinings 011525765Owens33.19
Vinings 0228181556Owens28.85
Vinings 0320771130Owens29.53
Vinings 0411891433Warren9.31
Wade Green 0218491626Owens6.42
Willeo 019601369Warren17.56