Republicans May Want To Switch It From Houston As Well
By John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
Democrats had a highly successful political convention in Chicago for 2024. But it’s unlikely to have an impact on Illinois, which was a deep blue state. There’s only one way it could have been better: if it was held in Atlanta, with some of it in Cobb County. Atlanta and Cobb County would be a perfect site for either party’s convention. Both should consider this for 2028.
Back in 1988, Democrats held their convention in Atlanta. You had a lot of big names come in, as well as some local talent in former President Jimmy Carter, the ultimate political native son. It helped propel the nominee, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, to a 17-percentage point lead over his rival, Vice-President George H. W. Bush.
Dukakis would go on to lose, of course. Maybe that’s why politicians from both parties have shied away from returning to Hotlanta ever since. But that’s not a smart reason to ignore one of the biggest cities from one of the most important swing states, or the nearby counties.
The Democrats didn’t lose in 1988 because of Atlanta. It helped boost the colorless Northeastern Governor to that giant lead. Sure there was that issue with colors (Democrats made everything in pastels so the TV of the time could make them pop in regular red, white and blue, leading Republicans to tease Dems as having “pastel patriotism”). Others cite the trouble a Hollywood actor got in, but that could have occurred anywhere. Dukakis lost the election with the debates, GOP commercials, and bad photo-ops and videos, not the convention.
Okay, so political convention bumps are generally overrated. My LaGrange College undergraduates looked at all political conventions from 1936 through 2020 for the Palm Beach Post, which was picked up by USA Today. When looking at how the party did in the state with the convention in an election year, compared to the previous election, we found a net gain of -0.3 percentage points. That means, on average, a party did a little worse in the state with the convention. And as one of my students found, that was the case in 1988 too. Democrats did a little worse in the Peach State in 1988 with Dukakis, compared to 1984 with former VP Walter Mondale against President Ronald Reagan. Ouch.
On the other hand, recent cases may tell a different story. After all, the Republicans lost Ohio twice to the Democrats and Barack Obama. The GOP hosted their convention in Cleveland in 2016, and Republicans took it from Hillary Clinton (and again in 2020). The Democrats hosted their convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin to pick former VP Joe Biden, and flipped the state from the red column in 2016 to the blue column in 2020. That’s what Republicans thought when they chose Milwaukee for the 2024 GOP Convention.
Even Mitt Romney helped the GOP inch Florida closer to their side in 2012, away from 2008, when they hosted their convention in Tampa. So perhaps recent years tell a different story from, say, the 1930s-1970s.
The party shouldn’t just focus on Atlanta. Cobb County, a political battleground, has plenty of venues for watch parties and campaign visits.
The GOP chose Houston for 2028, and most think Texas will be a safe red state. Democrats should think about flanking them, and picking Atlanta, returning to the South for the first time since 2012, and the first time in Georgia since 1988. It could lead to a big lead.
John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu. His “X” account is JohnTures2.
