by Stanley Dunlap, Georgia Recorder, [This article first appeared in the Georgia Recorder, republished with permission]

May 5, 2025

Gov. Brian Kemp announced on Monday that he will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2026, a decision that could have a ripple effect on the re-election campaign for Sen. Jon Ossoff.

The Georgia governor announced his decision via social media that he would not run in the pivotal 2026 election in which he was seen as the early favorite to challenge Ossoff, who along with U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock won historic 2020 elections for Georgia Democrats.

In a move to intensify its efforts to fundraise and campaign for candidates, the Democratic Party of Georgia elected Charlie Bailey as its chair on Saturday as it reenergizes the party’s base following setbacks following the 2020 victories.

Kemp wrote in a statement posted on X Monday he has decided that running for U.S. Senate is not the right fit for him.

“I spoke with President Trump and Senate leadership earlier today and expressed my commitment to work alongside them to ensure we have a strong Republican nominee who can win next November, and ultimately be a conservative voice in the US Senate who will put hardworking Georgians first,” Kemp wrote in the post.

“I am confident we will be united in that important effort, and I look forward to electing the next generation of leaders up and down the ballot here in the Peach State who will keep our state and nation headed in the right direction in 2026 and beyond,” Kemp said.

Political analysts said Kemp’s decision not to run for the Senate makes sense since being a low ranking member of that chamber would be a step down from being governor.

They suggest that Kemp will reap significant financial rewards for public speaking on behalf of the Republican Party while also keeping his options open for a 2028 run for the White House.

Ossoff’s U.S. Senate campaign manager Ellen Foster released a statement Monday following the Kemp announcement.

“As we’ve said for the past few months, Sen. Ossoff is well-prepared to defeat any challenger,” Foster wrote. “As Republicans scramble in the aftermath, our campaign will continue to build insurmountable momentum needed to win next November.”

Georgia Republican election strategist Brian Robinson said although Kemp was the top tier candidate in the Senate race, other GOP contenders have the opportunity to prove themselves in the primary to become the top candidate.

Robinson said he is not surprised about Kemp’s announcement Monday and dismissed the notion that despite high polling favorability ratings that Kemp was not a “shoe-in“ to defeat Ossoff. The Republican senatorial candidate in 2026 will also have the opportunity to raise enough money and build a campaign platform to defeat Ossoff, Robinson said.

“I think (Kemp) would have been miserable if he had won,” Robinson said. “I think he had other calculations as well. I think he can go make a lot of money. His network after being (Republican Governors Association chair) this year is going to be absolutely incredible and is worth millions of dollars. He can feather his nest to keep his options open for running in 2028. We don’t know what the environment is going to be in 2026 with the White House occupying party always facing headwinds in midterms, and the political environment is one that we can’t predict.”

Robinson said the Republican crop of candidates will have the opportunity to win over the voters necessary to run a strong campaign against the Democratic incumbent.

Charles Bullock, political science professor at the University of Georgia, said the Republican Senate candidate winner next year needs to be a candidate who can compete against Ossoff in November’s general election.

Bullock agreed with Robinson that Kemp’s decision is likely influenced by Kemp’s ability to generate significant income and the uncertainty of the political climate in 2026.

It is not uncommon for the party in power in the White House to lose ground in the midterm elections, Bullock said.

Republicans and Democratic candidates are expected to use Trump-focused messages to build support for their party’s candidates this year.

Kemp was successful in securing Democratic votes in his 2022 campaign against Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams, Bullock said.

Bullock said the Ossoff campaign is likely turning “hand-flips” after Kemp turned down the Senate bid.

Bullock said that the Ossoff campaign is most likely hopeful that right-wing U.S. Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene emerges as the top GOP candidate for Senate. Greene will be able to raise large sums of money for her campaign but he said that Greene’s style could be problematic in a statewide race.

A Greene staffer declined to comment on her future political aspirations but said she is honored to have the support of Georgians.

“Governor Kemp has been a great governor for the state of Georgia,” Greene said in a statement. “I wish him and his family well in all their future endeavors.”

Savannah Republican U.S. Rep Buddy Carter is another potential candidate who is well known in the region but will have to fight for name recognition in Atlanta, Bullock said.

“The Atlanta area is where the bulk of the votes that result from the primary is going to come from and they’re going to spend money to get known in the Atlanta area,” Bullock said. “The same thing for Rep. Mike Collins or Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is probably the best known member of Congress but she is the kind of person that will have a harder time than others holding onto the white college-educated voters, which is decisive in Georgia.”

Georgia Recorder is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Georgia Recorder maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor John McCosh for questions: info@georgiarecorder.com.