GA 2026 Governor’s Race Echoes The 2020 GA Senate Race

By John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College

Does this sound familiar? Two Republicans bash each other repeatedly during the primary, while a Democratic Party candidate making a first-time statewide race stays relatively quiet. It’s not just this year’s gubernatorial election. It’s what happened in the 2020 Senate race in Georgia, which cost the Republicans dearly that year.

Most pundits probably expected Lt. Governor Burt Jones would be one of the candidates making it to the primary, and then it would be a battle between Attorney General Chris Carr and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger for the second spot in the runoff. But then health care businessman Rick Jackson upset the apple cart, spending an untold amount on the race, crowding out Raffensperger and Carr. He trained his fire on Jones, who naturally retaliated.

That’s generally what happened in the race to fill Johnny Isakson’s GOP seat in 2020. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to the post, while Republican Congressman Doug Collins challenged her for the nomination. The fight between Loeffler and Collins became quite bitter over the airwaves. Eventually, Loeffler won one of the two spots in the “jungle primary” runoff to face Rev. Raphael Warnock, who stayed mostly quiet and also was pretty upbeat in his message, a sharp contrast to his GOP rivals.

In the runoff race in late 2020 and early 2021, Warnock stayed mostly positive, earning national recognition for his clever ads. Loeffler might still have prevailed had she not faced the tough primary opponent in Rep. Collins, who drained her resources and energy, forcing her more to the right than Collins, and her ally Kemp, may have expected. Warnock became the first African-American to win a race for governor or U.S. Senator, not only knocking off an incumbent, but the first to win such a contest without having held prior office. He showed it was no fluke two years later by turning away sports celebrity Herschel Walker.

Evidence from the polls on 270towin.com reveal that Jackson and Jones are in a dogfight for the top spot. A combination of polls from Remington Research, InsiderAdvantage, the University of Georgia and “yes.everykid.foundation” show barely more than three points between the two (29%-25.8%). Meanwhile, the more moderate candidates who all won handily in 2022, Raffensperger with 14.5% and Carr with 7.3%.

That Jackson-Jones feud may be turning off voters. A conservative professor told me he’s sick of the who thing between the frontrunners, and will likely vote for Raffensperger or Carr. It may be too late for one of them to make it, given that the top two are soaking up all the attention and spending.

This disdain for the frontrunners is showing up in the bitter battle among the top two in the GOP. According to Echelon Insights, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms leads Jones by a convincing 49% to 43% lead, and she’s barely made a ripple in spending or being on the airwaves. That late April poll by Echelon Insights has her ahead of Jackson by the exact same score (49%-43%). But what’s most telling is that Bottoms barely leads Raffensperger 46%-44%.

Is it the nasty tone of the Jackson-Jones fight that’s putting Bottoms ahead of her top two rivals? Or is it their conservative agenda, which could be less appealing than Raffensperger’s more moderate approach in the mold of successful GOP candidates like Kemp and Isakson?

Those same four polls have Mayor Bottoms comfortably ahead of her opponents (a 45% average to Michael Thurmond’s 13%, and single digits for Geoff Duncan and Jason Esteves). Should she just get over the threshold, the former Atlanta Mayor won’t have to face an opponent in the runoff. If it’s Jackson vs. Jones for round two of the primary, the Georgia GOP may find themselves in another 2020/2021 Senate race where a winnable contest slips from their grasp due to infighting and voter fatigue with it.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu or on “X” at @johntures2. His first book “Branded” a thriller novel where corporate greed, media manipulation and academic intrigue collide in a deadly game of product placement, has been published by the Huntsville Independent Press (https://www.huntsvilleindependent.com/product-page/branded).