By John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College

One of the leading stories coming out of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin has been the struggles of J.D. Vance to connect with voters, along with a series of gaffes he’s made. Polling shows he’s not been the strong pick the GOP was hoping for on the 2024 ticket. It looks bad for Republicans. Can the Trump team do something to avoid disaster?

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has touted the Vance pick as good, for the Democrats. Schumer has a countdown timer that reminds people of whether British Prime Minister Lizz Truss would last longer than a head of lettuce.

Will Donald Trump “fire” the young Ohio Senator from the ticket from the ticket? There has been a historical precedent for such a choice, but it’s not a good one for the GOP. Some of the problems occurred with how the decision was made. Moreover, if Trump does dump Vance, he better have a good replacement in mind, lest he repeat the errors of the Democrats in 1972.

Twelve years ago, National Public Radio did a great job interviewing Joshua Glasser, who wrote the book The Eighteen-Day Running Mate. According to Glasser, Senator George McGovern assumed that Senator Ted Kennedy would be his running mate, despite being turned down numerous times. Others like Wisconsin Senator Gaylor Nelson and Connecticut Senator Abraham Ribicoff, said no. Then came the first day of the Democratic National Convention in Miami Beach.

“[McGovern Campaign Leader Gary] Hart says Thomas Eagleton wasn’t even on the initial shortlist, but he was an up-and-comer. He was elected the youngest-ever attorney general in Missouri history, and by 1972, the then-senator made a name for himself as a fiery opponent of the war…‘McGovern, with real big trouble with Catholic voters, with labor support, looked at Tom Eagleton as almost like the perfect kind of candidate,’ [NPR’s Ken] Rudin said.”

“On that first day of the convention, McGovern called Eagleton to offer him the spot. They spoke for about two minutes over the phone. ‘We went over names casually, didn’t do any background checking,’ Hart says. ‘It wasn’t mandated in those days as it is now. Certainly, after ’72 it came to be mandated. But the people trusted other people’s word.”

After the DNC Convention ended, rumors swirled that Eagleton had health concerns. “Within hours [after the rumors made the news], the McGovern campaign was getting those details. On three occasions in the 1960s, Eagleton was hospitalized for depression and had undergone electroshock treatment. ‘This was the height of the Cold War,’ Hart says. ‘The key here wasn’t how do we feel about mental illness or therapy or anything like that. The key was — finger on the button.’”

Supposedly, McGovern said he was “1,000 percent” behind Eagleton before a closed-door meeting where the Missouri Senator was dumped, which made the South Dakota Senator look untrustworthy. McGovern reportedly asked several candidates to join him on the ticket but was repeatedly turned down. Boston Mayor Kevin White might have been an intriguing choice, but the Democrats went with R. Sargent Shriver, who had not held elected office. The McGovern-Shriver ticket lost every state but Massachusetts on their way to electoral disaster in 1972.

Most who write about this story ignore Eagleton after 1972. He won reelection in 1974, in a good year for Democrats, and won another term in 1980, in a bad year for Democrats, nationally and in the state of Missouri. The GOP targeted Eagleton in 1980, and won the governor’s race in the Missouri, and Eagleton still prevailed. Perhaps McGovern should have stuck with Eagleton.

That’s the first lesson for the MAGA movement. Don’t let the first few days influence the VP Ticket.

Secondly, if Trump does dump Vance, he shouldn’t say he’s entirely in support of Vance, only to pull the rug out from under him. That would look disloyal for a man who demands loyalty from others.

Third, if Vance is dumped, Trump needs a candidate with more political experience. Vance has only 1.5 years more political experience than Shriver, the least experienced candidate on a VP ticket since WWII (for those who forget, Obama had a decade in the Illinois legislature before winning his U.S. Senate race in 2004). And Sarah Palin was a mayor before she was a governor. That could explain Vance’s frequent mistakes and comments that show his inexperience. Pence had a lot more experience.

It was understandable why Trump would take Vance. He has several attributes Trump lacked: military experience, youth, being from a swing state (instead of New York), and a great book that touted his record. Whatever Trump chooses, he’s only got a short time to make that decision.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. His views are his own. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu. His “X” account is JohnTures2.